A multivariable risk prediction model was developed to investigate various indices for melanoma predisposition, including hair color, nevus density, family medical history, prior incidences of melanoma, and tanning bed use. The model yielded little variation between predicted and observed incidents of melanoma across all indices of predicted risk.  These results emphasize the importance of increased sun-safety precautions – particularly for individuals who are at increased risk of developing melanoma.  The final melanoma risk prediction model found that red hair color and nevus density were the strongest predictors of risk

“Risk prediction models have been proposed as a more accurate and informative way of communicating risk and may lead to better preventive behaviors among those at high risk.  Additionally, risk stratification may assist in planning intervention trials and targeting population prevention interventions.”

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